Surge (9/28/22)

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In today's newsletter:📱 Starlink downloads🦾 Go for ADR demo💸 The term sheet

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Starlink Downloads Surged This Weekend

The Starlink mobile app has 2M+ downloads in 2022, per third-party estimates from 42Matters, a Swiss mobile intelligence provider. The tally includes both installs on Android’s Google Play marketplace and the iOS App Store.

Starlink saw ~90,000 downloads over the weekend, 42Matters’ Alexander Braelow told Payload. The spike occurred shortly after SpaceX activated Starlink in Iran.

Lest we offend the sensibilities of our stats-inclined readers, let’s get it out of the way now: correlation ≠ causation. “But the timing is suspicious,” Braelow said. “It was 90,000 downloads basically overnight, at the exact moment that the service was made available.”

Plus, there’s precedent for this. Starlink saw downloads surge in Ukraine earlier this year as SpaceX, Washington, and Kyiv began trucking thousands of terminals into the country.

Don’t read into the news too much

Iranian app stores don’t offer the Starlink app and Tehran has also reportedly throttled access to Starlink’s website. VPNs could offer a possible workaround, while nation-states don’t have much control over satellite transmissions within their borders.

But forget software and RF signals entirely for a moment. Hardware is still the gating factor. Iranians would need terminals they don’t have in order to access SpaceX’s satellite broadband service. Plus, ground stations would be located near the country.

Parsing the data at a global level

Starlink is disproportionately popular in Canada, New Zealand, and as discussed, Ukraine. The app has ~116,633, ~15,203, and ~564,548 downloads in each country, respectively.

But downloads don’t tell the full story. One could install the app without a kit or subscription. Monthly active users (MAUs) may be a better proxy.

According to 42Matters, Starlink had 35,480 Android MAUs in August. That’s an 80% jump from January. The company is still processing iOS MAU data, but Braelow says he expects the number to be in the same ballpark range as Android.

• On Google Play, Starlink has 4.6 ⭐across 7,400 reviews.

• In the App Store, the app has 4.4 ⭐ across 1,200 ratings.

• The app is ranked #9 in iOS’s utilities category and #12 in Android’s tools category.

Takeaway: These aren’t official SpaceX numbers, and always take third-party estimates with a grain of salt. Still, the data gives a directional clue as to where the winds are blowing. On the manufacturing side of things, Elon Musk said SpaceX recently passed 1M production units of Starlink.

Taking Out the Trash

The UK has decided it’s ready to kickstart space junk removal missions.

On Monday, the UK Space Agency announced that it had awarded two active debris removal (ADR) Phase B demo contracts to ClearSpace and Astroscale. The contracts awarded are worth £2.25M ($2.4M) and £1.7M ($1.8M), respectively. Beware that the dollar conversion may rapidly sink between our writing and your reading of this.

Next year, UKSA will choose one of the two companies to advance.

The debris problem: In orbit around Earth right now are millions of pieces of debris—a combination of spent rocket boosters, defunct satellites, pieces of broken spacecraft, and flecks of paint and metal built up over time. The DoD’s Space Surveillance Network currently tracks about 27,000 pieces of debris greater than 5cm, and tons more than that is currently untrackable from ground systems.

It’s the largest, most uncontrollable pieces of debris in orbit that currently pose the highest risk of causing collisions in orbit. NASA’s inspector general estimated last year that actively removing five of the largest, most dangerous debris objects from orbit per year would effectively stabilize the orbital environment (alongside a high rate of post-mission satellite disposal).

The UK steps up

No nation has successfully demonstrated ADR in orbit. UKSA is upping its ADR investment to change that.

ClearSpace, the larger awardee, is a Swiss debris removal startup that will now move forward with Clearing the LEO Environment with Active Removal (CLEAR) mission development. The UK award should advance the project through preliminary design review in 2023, with a tentative launch set for 2025.

• ClearSpace is developing a spacecraft with robotic arms that can catch debris in orbit, then drag it down to burn up upon atmospheric reentry.

• CLEAR is designed to deorbit two pieces of UK-origin space trash that have been inactive for at least a decade.

Astroscale’s £1.7M ($1.8M) Phase B contract will support the development of its Cleaning Outer Space Mission through Innovative Capture (COSMIC) mission.

• COSMIC will use a combination of Astroscale’s magnetic capture technology and robotics to remove two defunct UK spacecraft.

• The Astroscale team said that it has identified a number of potential targets for COSMIC, and will settle on the two final candidates as part of this next design phase.

Both awardees are leading their own team of British space companies that will work together in the next phase of mission development. After both teams have advanced through preliminary design review in Oct. 2023, UKSA will choose one project to push over the finish line.

+ While we’re here: For more information about the debris environment and the challenges of ADR, check out the first part of our deep dive into orbital debris regulation.

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In Other News

• SLS’s next launch attempt will be in mid-November.

• ESA is seeking $100M for a LEO-based navigation constellation demo.

• ULA delayed the launch of the SES-20 and -21 satellites due to Hurricane Ian.

• Ingenuity completed Flight 33 on Mars this weekend.

• Privateer launched Wayfinder 2.0 and Crow’s Nest, a collision risk assessment tool.

• GOP lawmakers have concerns about the FCC overstepping congressional authorization with new debris guidelines.

• The Onion reports on a disturbing Dimorphos development.

The View from Space

To anyone in Hurricane Ian’s potential path, stay safe.