Phone a friend (6/14/23)

Good morning. It’s Wednesday, which means it’s time to shout out a Mike in the space community (just like the Geico camel did in the commercial from the 2010s.) Today’s honoree is Mike Gazarik, VP of engineering at Ball Aerospace, who was nominated by his colleague Chris Cline.

In today's edition...
🚀 Deloitte’s SpaceTech report
🗽 Highlights of SWF summit first day
📃 Space opportunities
💸 The term sheet

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Deloitte Releases SpaceTech Report

Deloitte released its SpaceTech report this morning, which reviews the most active and quickly-growing segments within the space industry. The report is intended for readers who are leaders in their own industries but remain in the dark about the progress that’s been made in space over the last decade.

“In previous decades, a thoughtfully developed tech strategy became a competitive imperative; similarly, over the coming decades, companies across all industries will increasingly need to consider whether a space strategy will be a key component of their future,” the authors wrote.

To compile their analysis, the writers interviewed space industry officials and organized their takeaways into “regions”: here on Earth, nearby in orbit, and out there in the rest of the universe.

Here: Starting down on Earth, access to space has increased dramatically in recent years. The boom in commercial launch drove down the cost to send spacecraft to orbit, and rideshare capabilities (Thanks, SpaceX) gave smaller companies with less capital on hand the ability to launch missions of their own.

This “as-a-service business model is transforming space launch in the same way that the cloud democratized IT: making it increasingly accessible, responsive, and affordable,” the authors wrote.

Near: The number of satellites in Earth orbit is shooting up exponentially. Active satellites in orbit increased 44% in 2022 to almost 7,000, with ~3,800 in LEO, Deloitte found. It expects that by 2030, the number of LEO sats will hit 40,000.

That’s a lot of room for growth. The areas poised to take the most advantage, per Deloitte:

1. Satcom. 80% of satellites deployed between Jan. 2020 and April 2022 were communications satellites.

2. Navigation. Deloitte projects the market for global navigation satellite services will grow to $547B by 2031, up from $220B in 2021.

3. Earth observation. It’s currently just ~10% of the space economy, but EO’s role in a slew of other industries sets its prospects for growth high, from ~$3B now to $8B in 2030 and $25B in 2040, according to Deloitte’s predictions.

There: The space industry is, relatively speaking, new, and space companies have hardly scratched the surface of everything that’s possible to achieve out there. The possibilities for human spaceflight are immense, Deloitte writes, including the potential for habitation on other celestial bodies and longer-term visits in orbit. The analysts also pointed to asteroid mining as a potential revenue stream down the line, though we’re far from seeing that become a reality.

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Summit for Space Sustainability: Day 1 Highlights

Space sustainability enthusiasts who gathered in New York this week for the fifth iteration of the Secure World Foundation’s Summit for Space Sustainability were faced with a dizzying stat: more than 2,700 spacecraft have been launched since the organization's last meeting a year ago.

The first day of the conference was all about the need to take action now to address orbital debris, set norms of behavior, and share more data to prevent a crisis as the number of objects in orbit skyrockets.

Call to action: Audrey Schaffer, the NSC’s space lead, urged governments and companies to do more than just express support for a ban on direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests. Since the US announced its own destructive ASAT ban just over a year ago, 12 nations have joined the ban and more than 155 nations voted in support of the guidelines. But it’s not enough, Schaffer said.

“If you’re here representing a country that hasn’t yet made this commitment, but believes in the importance of space sustainability, please take this back to your capital,” she said. “If you’re here representing a country that’s already made this commitment, fabulous! Phone a friend.”

And industry shouldn’t view itself as being on the sidelines. “You too can, and I think should, voice your support for this norm,” she said. “Your company or your organization can go on the record saying that you believe the world should end destructive DA-ASAT testing.”

SSA progress: The Commerce Department is making progress in its mission to take over the government’s space situational awareness mission. Richard DalBello, the head of the Office of Space Commerce, said his office will hold a series of meetings over the next month with satellite operators, to talk about what data the government needs, and with SSA providers to talk about standards.

“We are very much in the, ‘we need to start pulling people together’ [phase],’” DalBello said.

Reduce, reuse, recycle: At the conference, the World Economic Forum also unveiled new orbital debris mitigation measures that were developed with ESA. You can read more about them in yesterday’s Polaris.

Just a first step: Most of the existing regulations, including the new WEF guidelines, are voluntary. Conference-goers wrestled with the hard question of whether voluntary regulations are worth it. The view from some industry attendees: voluntary guidelines are important, but they’re not a long-term solution and, at some point, the industry will need concrete regulations.

“I do get concerned that they’re seen as the answer. They’re a useful tool maybe,” said Mark Dickinson, deputy CTO and VP of the space segment at Viasat. “But I think some form of regulation is needed, because I can’t think of a global commons that’s been successful that hasn’t been regulated.”

See you later!

The commercial earth observation (EO) market we know today was born from defense. Space-based EO data provides the analysts and the war fighters with an information advantage. Now, commercial companies are at the forefront of defense applications.

Geopolitical analysts tie together multiple data sets to see action in their domain and make strategic decisions. This webinar will dive into how multiple data modalities - RF, SAR, optical, & hyperspectral - impact defense use cases. We will also dive into usability. Many defense clients simply use raw data. But for others, and increasingly for the commercial market, we need to ask: how can we make EO data more usable from a platform, analytics, and service model perspective?

Space Opportunities

Here are the top government opportunities for space companies this week, as compiled by our partner TZero.

🦦 DARPA has released an OTA solicitation for the Otter program, which will demonstrate “air breathing” electrical propulsion technologies for VLEO missions. Responses are due Aug. 21.

🚀 SSC (RSLP) has released an RFI for the Spaceport Enhancement Program (SEP), which seeks to increase the military utility of existing range and launch facilities. Responses are due June 23.

🌴 USSOCOM is hosting the SOF Space 2040 event, a table-top exercise in Orlando, FL. Experts from industry, academia, and national lab partners with innovative space technologies should submit a CV by June 30.

Additional opportunities and details can be found in the TZero Space Tracker.

In Other News

• Elon Musk is planning to launch Starship again this summer.

• Satellites are photobombing images of the universe, frustrating astronomers.

• The Space Force is eager to use commercial on-orbit servicing tech.

• China’s next lunar probe will carry ESA and CNES payloads.

• The Texas Space Commission is up and running after Texas Gov. Greg Abbot signed the bill establishing it into law on Tuesday.

• Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter incorrectly stated the milestone that Starfish’s Otter Pup mission is gunning for. If successful, it will become the first docking between two commercial spacecraft in LEO.

The View from Space

This image from the JWST released this month shows 45,000+ galaxies.