Stakes, stresses, stations (9/1/22)

Good morning, and happy September. Reminder that we’re off Monday for Labor Day in the states. Hopefully there will be a rocket bound for the Moon by the time we’re back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

Today’s newsletter: 📉 Defense industrial base🌊 ISS deorbit plans 📝 The contract report

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Losing the North Star

Last week, the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), the Space Force, and the Air Force Research Laboratory released their fourth annual joint report on the state of the defense industrial base.

The verdict: The US has a lot of work to do if it wants to compete with China over the long run.

Penned by four prominent Pentagon space officials, the report makes the case for more thoughtful state industrial planning and outlines the role industry should play in that future. Thinking further out and working hand-in-glove with commercial space, the authors believe, will enable the US to move faster.

“While there are isolated bright spots across NASA and DoD, the sense of urgency is not universally shared—especially within the vast bureaucracy that is constructively delaying US commercial progress through regulatory burden,” the authors wrote.

Vision problems

What are we trying to do in space, anyway? Within the DoD, there isn’t a clear nor commonly articulated vision. The report highlights this sin of omission as a vulnerability.

China, on the other hand, has clear plans through at least 2045, and is making its space program a national priority. “China could surpass the US in space superiority if we don’t increase our investment,” DIU director Michael Brown said at an Atlantic Council event last week.

• Last year, China led the world in number of launches (though SpaceX the US won on total upmass).

• “While the United States space industrial base is on an upward trajectory, participants expressed concerns that the upward trajectory of the [People’s Republic of China] is even steeper, with a significant rate of overtake, requiring urgent action,” the authors wrote.

Drawing inspiration: In 1962, the White House put out a “North Star” vision that affirmed the federal government’s commitment to the Apollo program.

Now, the authors write, we are in a new—don’t say it, don’t say it—space race. The stakes of that race are lasting economic superiority and security in space. Consequently, the report argues, Washington needs a new North Star to unify the government, space industry, and the public toward a set of common goals.

The report’s recommendation for a new North Star goal is the same as what the authors outlined in last year’s report: space development and settlement. The Artemis program and developing the Moon are included in that vision, as well as increasing science and technology funding, reforming policy, declaring a space economic zone, and incorporating space technology into long-term infrastructure plans.

Spurring on industry

The unwieldy machine that is the government procurement system is stepping on the space industry’s toes. The report’s authors call for major changes to the way the DoD and NASA identify new space technologies and ready them for government use.

“What’s required to win the space race is the strengthening of private-public partnerships that emphasize commercial technology over bespoke systems,” Michael Brown, head of the DIU, said at the Atlantic Council event last week.

The report identified a few key sticking points:

• Licensing bodies (including the FAA, FCC, and NOAA) have not expanded to meet the demand for satellite launches, and license applications take too long to review

• Contracting procedures leave little room for innovation and set too many requirements

• Government investment is sporadic

TL;DR: The innovation driving the commercial space industry could have a huge impact on US national security infrastructure, if only the government were prepared to procure that technology. The report echoes the common refrain that a stronger public/private partnership and shared vision is needed to cement the US as the economic leader in space.

Share this story with a friend who has big dreams for the future of space:

ISS Retirement Roundup

As recent events have laid bare, the days of the ISS are numbered. The station is a crown jewel of engineering and a bustling hub of human spaceflight. But wear and tear is taking its toll and maintenance doesn’t come cheap.

International partners recently extended the orbiting microgravity research center’s operational life through 2030. After that, the agency plans to decommission it by burning it up in the atmosphere and dropping whatever’s left in an uninhabited region of the South Pacific.

• The ISS, originally planned to deorbit after 15 years, is old enough to legally drink a beer in the US. It’s still operational almost 22 years after the first long-term residents arrived.

• The station has been home to 258 astronauts from 20 countries and 3,000+ microgravity experiments.

The stakes

Apart from its core scientific research and technology demonstrations, the station has been a testbed for a host of commercial cargo and crew spacecraft, including private astronaut missions. Half of the American segment’s research time has been dedicated to the ISS National Lab, which was instrumental in opening up the facility for commercial use.

The stresses

Limitations on the ISS’s longevity in the station’s technical lifetime come from its primary structure, consisting of modules, radiators, and truss structures. Orbital thermal cycling and each docking and undocking add to the wear and tear. More station damage means higher risk to the crew.

Now that we’ve set the scene…

Though the station was given a new lease on life, planning for a post-ISS future is already well underway. We’ve published a primer on that next chapter, looking at plans for decommissioning and deorbiting, the readiness of future commercial LEO outposts, and more.

The online feature is a ~7-min read. Check it out before you check out for the long weekend.

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🌌 Don’t Miss Our Science Newsletter Launch 🌌

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In Other News

• Blue Origin delayed the (uncrewed) NS-23 launch due to weather. Darn west Texas winds…

• Firefly announced Bill Weber, previous president and CEO of KeyW Corporation, as its new CEO.

• China and NASA may have their sights set the same landing sites at the lunar south pole (h/t SpaceNews).

• Two Galileo navigation satellites have entered commercial service after spending the summer in testing and commissioning.

• SpaceX static fired multiple engines on Starship for the first time as it prepares for an orbital launch attempt.

Payload Insights

This graph shows the top five space spenders' budgets from 1999 to 2021. Thanks to Euroconsult for the data.

The View from Space

If you think you’re having the most fun on Twitter this week, think again. You're not. NASA Earth’s Twitter handle has you beat. Earlier this week, it was singing about corn: