Chosen ones (2/10/23)

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Today’s newsletter: 🚀 31 Raptors ignite 🛰️ Kuiper go-ahead🗣️ Payload’s picks

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That's Hot

On Thursday, SpaceX conducted a full-duration static fire test of 31 Raptors on Starship’s massive first-stage booster. It was SpaceX’s first attempt at simultaneously firing all 33 engines on Super Heavy, said booster, from the Orbital Launch Mount in Starbase, TX.

The test set a new world record for thrust, as noted by NASASpaceFlight’s Chris Bergin.

Why 31? SpaceX turned off one engine before the test and another shut itself down after igniting. Not to worry: 31 engines is enough to reach orbit, per Elon.

Chosen ones? The affectionately named Booster 7 and Ship 24 have together completed key testing milestones in recent months. Will the two peas in a pod make it to the launchpad for an orbital attempt? Who’s to say.

Regardless, the booster and ship that make the first orbital attempt, like so many boosters and ships that came before, will be sacrificial lambs. They’ll be expended (and/or destroyed), and meticulously studied, in service of the greater Starship program and quest for full rocket reusability.

About that checklist

• Last November, 14 of the booster’s Raptors ignited for a full-duration static fire test (2x the amount previously tested).

• On Jan. 18, SpaceX performed a cryogenic proof test on the fully stacked Starship.

• SpaceX conducted a wet dress rehearsal on Jan. 23, loading Starship with 10M+ lbs. of propellant.

• Next, SpaceX destacked Booster 7 and Ship 24 with launch tower chopsticks on Jan. 25.

• The launcher ran a full static fire test of nearly all 33 Raptors ← YOU ARE HERE 

• Finalize thermal protection system and any other hardware refinements on Ship 24

• Restack Booster 7 and the ship

• Obtain launch license from the FAA

• Launch

What’s next? SpaceX will need to assess what, if any, damage there was to its launchpad and flight hardware. While Starship still has some steps on its checklist before SpaceX can attempt to yeet, Thursday’s test bodes well for the ~approximate~ timeline for an orbital flight attempt (OFT) in the near future.

Let’s hear from you: When will Starship take flight? The last time we asked you this—June 2022—only 13% of readers correctly predicted that Starship’s launch would happen from 2023 onwards.

Half of respondents predicted a launch in July, August, or September, and 37% predicted a fall ’22 launch. With that in mind, we ask again: “When will Starship take flight?” Cast your vote with one click.

Kuiper Gets a Green Light

Another megaconstellation has cleared a key step toward LEO deployment. On Wednesday, the FCC approved Kuiper’s orbital debris mitigation plan, a significant regulatory hurdle that has been keeping Amazon’s broadband constellation out of the sky.

The story so far: Amazon has taken a long, winding road with Kuiper. In 2020, the FCC approved the constellation, with the caveat that Amazon would need a smarter debris mitigation plan.

Amazon submitted an updated plan a few months later. SpaceX, Viasat, Kepler, NASA, and the NSF, among others, have since voiced complaints and lobbied the FCC to lodge stricter restrictions on Kuiper.

• SpaceX argued that Kuiper should be subject to a Starlink rule. The rule states that if the cumulative remaining operational lifetime for all failed satellites is 100+ years, the company has to put the brakes on deployment pending an FCC review.

• In Viasat’s protest to Project Kuiper, the operator said that Kuiper’s debris mitigation plan “has willfully ignored its obligations.”

Conflict resolution: Ultimately, the FCC sided with Amazon, Since Amazon hasn’t yet tested any Kuiper sats on orbit, the commission said it can’t make any decisions about their reliability or safety.

Under its new mitigation plan, Amazon is required to:

1. Report any and all outages of its collision avoidance system

2. Submit biannual reports on conjunctions (or close calls with other satellites/objects)

3. Report satellite disposals and failures to dispose

What’s next? The first two Kuiper satellites are manifested on the first flight of ULA’s Vulcan Centaur, tentatively scheduled for sometime in Q1. Amazon is currently building its constellation and user terminals. Under its FCC license, Kuiper must deploy half its satellites by July 30, 2026, and the rest by July 20, 2029.

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In Other News

• $100…that’s the price of a part that led to Virgin Orbit’s ($VORB) failed Jan. launch.

• Blue Origin 4x’d its in-space programs headcount in 2022.

• Also…Blue is teaming up with *checks notes* Shaquille O’Neal.

• Starlink rolled out to Iceland and Brazil this week.

The View from Space