Radio star (12/1/22)

Good morning. We want to start today by giving a huge happy bday shoutout to Jacqueline Feldscher, Payload’s senior policy reporter. And while birthdays are great, we have an even more exciting announcement. We’ll hand it over to Jacqueline to share:

Jacqueline will be on maternity leave through March, so reroute any professional correspondence to another member of the Payload team. It’s the best bday gift she could ask for. 😊

In today's newsletter:🛰️ BW3 and astronomy🗣️ Reader survey📻 SiriusXM’s new sats📝 The contract report

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Oh, I'm Blinded by the Light

A satellite launched earlier this year is now one of the single brightest objects in the night sky.

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) has plans in the works to build a constellation of ~100 satellites in LEO that would be akin to “cell towers in space.” In September, the Odessa, TX company launched BlueWalker 3, its long-awaited and second operational test satellite.

On Nov. 14, BlueWalker 3 unfolded its solar array. The 693 sq-ft beast is bigger than any other solar array in LEO.

• The benefits of the massive array? It could help AST SpaceMobile deliver satellite-to-smartphone services—and potentially afford technological advantages over the many others crowding into this space.

• The drawbacks? This unfolding increased the satellite’s visual brightness 40x, putting it in the top 20 brightest objects in the night sky.

That’s a problem for astronomers whose observations are dependent on ground-based telescopes. On Monday, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) published a statement expressing concern about the test satellite’s outsize brightness. The IAU called for further observations of the satellite and its potential effects on astronomy.

The light problem: Bright, artificial objects in the night sky leave a streak of light across still astronomy images, obscuring observations. Plus, as the IAU pointed out, the natural, dark night sky should be preserved as “an important part of humanity’s shared cultural heritage.”

This isn’t the first time a LEO operator has caught flak for the brightness of its birds. SpaceX faced criticism for the brightness of its Starlink constellation, which was visible in many ground-based astronomical observations. The company has been working with astronomers to figure out how to make its satellites less bright. Earlier this year, SpaceX published a “lessons learned” blog post, a quasi-guide for operators on how to reduce satellite brightness.

It’s not just about the light: In addition to the visual impact, RF signals thrown off by comms satellites like BlueWalker 3 could also affect observations. “Besides their visible brightness, these new satellites...will transmit strong radio waves at frequencies currently reserved for terrestrial cell-phone communications,” the union wrote. The authors also note that these satellites are not subject to radio quiet zone restrictions. Terrestrial cell networks, however, are required to maintain lower signals in these zones so as not to interfere with sensitive instruments.

So…what happens next? AST SpaceMobile is still planning to deploy its full constellation of no more than 168 satellites similar to BlueWalker 3 (though the company appears to be cash-strapped and the constellation is far from fully financed).

In a statement to Space.com, AST said that it is studying new next-gen anti-reflective materials, working with NASA and astronomy groups, and mulling “potential operational interventions.” The company also says it will avoid broadcasting in radio quiet zones.

Today, we’re running the fourth segment of our reader survey, will help us improve Payload, iterate on our products, and ultimately make this a better experience for you. You can respond directly within this newsletter by clicking on your answer below.

TV…Did Not Kill the Radio Star?

SiriusXM ($SIRI) announced Tuesday that it has commissioned Maxar ($MAXR) to build SXM-11 and SXM-12, two new geostationary satellites.

The deal doubles the number of SiriusXM satellites in the pipeline. Last year, the American broadcaster ordered SXM-9 and -10 from Maxar. As a matter of fact, these two go way back…Maxar has been building SiriusXM’s satellites for two-plus decades.

• SXM-11 and -12 will be the 12th and 13th satellites that Maxar builds for SiriusXM.

• The twin spacecraft will be “high-powered digital audio” radio satellites, built on Maxar’s 1300-class bus in Palo Alto and San Jose.

That’s a lot of TAM: In a press release, SiriusXM noted that 150M+ cars on the road are equipped to receive its satellite-delivered audio entertainment services. But compatibility ≠ paying customers. SiriusXM has ~34M subscribers.

SiriusXM offers blended distribution, in that it serves customers both through 1) GEO satellites and 2) streaming rails (SiriusXM owns Pandora). While #1 is more expensive, it’s also the primary business. Last year, SiriusXM made up 76% of the company’s revenue (with Pandora kicking in the rest).

Writing on the wall: In a Q3 call with analysts, $SIRI CFO Sean Sullivan braced investors for a capex ramp to buy SXM-11 and -12. The company reported $2.28B in Q3 revenue.

Payload takeaway: GEO satellites are complex, costly, and time-consuming endeavors, which in part is driving a migration to LEO. But they’re still effective for use cases like broadcasting. SiriusXM clearly sees value in GEO—after all, it’s the reason Americans can get radio nationwide in their cars.

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In Other News

• SES-21 is now operational. ULA launched the all-electric, Boeing-built satellite in October (along with its SES-20 twin). SES-21 is now set to provide C-band broadcast and radio services to “millions” of American homes, per SES.

• SpaceX stood down from the HAKUTO-R launch and did not announce a new date/time for the mission.

• Lynk successfully demonstrated direct-to-phone connectivity in Australia through Optus’s network.

• NASA pulled the plug on GeoCarb due to cost overruns with the greenhouse gas-monitoring program.

• France joined the UN pledge not to conduct direct-ascent ASAT testing.

• Starlink suffered what appeared to be a brief outage yesterday.

• Your quote of the day comes from Bloomberg’s review of Orion’s onboard Alexa: “I wanted to play “Highway to Hell,” but Lockheed Martin said it couldn’t secure the rights to AC/DC.”

The View from Space

China sent its Shenzhou 15 crew to Tiangong earlier this week. The mission kicked off with a late-night launch of a Long March 2F rocket.